Sanctions against Russia – Russia hopes on rising oil prices – Frankfurter Rundschau

February 21, 2016

Next in descent: For the Russian economy, a rising oil price is more important than the end of economic sanctions. Photo: dpa

The economic sanctions adopted in the wake of the Ukraine crisis with Russia will expire in the summer. Important would be, however, that oil prices rise again soon. The analysis.

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The shattered in Ukraine crisis between Russia and the west eased somewhat again in the wake of Syria War. That leaves German companies hope for an end to the existing since the summer of 2014 sanctions the US and EU. Much more important for them – and for Russia – but would be a recovery in oil prices

In response to the connection of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea to the Russian Federation, the EU and the United States decided to economic sanctions. Russia, in particular in the fields of banking, military and energy conveyors. Coming in July runs the scheme, and would be extended by the EU.

“We hope that we will see by the summer of 2016, beginning of the end of the sanctions”, said the new head of the Eastern Committee of German economy, Wolfgang Büchele, on Friday. The posting of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to Munich Security Conference was a signal of openness to dialogue on the part of Russia have been.

In fact, the once flourishing eastern business for German companies go bad. Last year exports shrank to Russia, according to Eastern Committee by a quarter to 21 billion euros – 7.5 billion less than the year before. Since 2012, the export volume has almost halved. 38 percent of all German companies in Russia described their business situation in a survey by the German-Russian Chamber of Commerce as bad.

The main cause is the decline in oil prices. The energy and commodity sector dominates the Russian economy. So its crude oil exports last year in dollar terms declined by more than 40 percent, although the exported quantity of oil remained almost the same. Moreover, the fall in oil prices allowed the national currency ruble crash, which made imported goods more expensive dramatically and drove the inflation rate last at 15 percent. The real wages of Russians fell in 2015 by almost ten percent, which the consumer expresses.

The weak ruble torpedoed all investment plans of Russian companies, as new plants have to be paid for with hard currency and, therefore, be prohibitive. Fixed investment declined in 2015 by more than eight percent, the industry produced three percent less. The feeling the German companies that mainly supply machines, auto parts and chemical products. Russia imports of motor vehicles fell by 22, of machinery and equipment by 42 percent

Total shrank economic performance of Russia last year by 3.7 percent, this year is a further decline of less than one percent. But should recover the price of oil and the sanctions are lifted, the growth is likely to be much stronger. Of the German companies would benefit -. All the more so since the ruble devaluation has considerably cheapened the Russian wages

In the survey of the German-Russian Chamber of Commerce, 60 percent of companies asked for an immediate lifting of Western penalties, 28 percent were for a gradual reduction. Three-quarters of them in favor of a common economic space between the EU and Eurasian Economic Union -. A proposal to Russian President Vladimir Putin had made six years ago