freedom to travel without border checks, free movement of goods: All this makes the Schengen Agreement possible for over 30 years. But now it is on the line. Austria, Germany, Sweden and three other EU countries have introduced temporary border controls because of the refugee crisis. Would Europe the barriers fall permanently again, would have dramatic consequences according to a study for the European economy – and especially for the German.
alone for the Federal Republic would be 2025 growth losses 77-235 billion euros expected. This is the result of a study by Prognos AG on behalf of the Bertelsmann Stiftung. “If the barriers within Europe go down again, gets the already weak growth in Europe even greater pressure. At the end of all the people pay the bill”, Aart Jan de Geus, President and CEO of the Bertelsmann Foundation.
According to the federal government the temporary border controls already hurt the German economy. “The economic development in Germany could possibly be shortly somewhat subdued,” it says in an internal document of the Federal Ministry of Economics on the economic consequences of border controls, is available to the “world” exclusively.
“queues before border crossings as a result of identity checks can about impact on supply chains have” write the officials. Total “should the economic impact but remain manageable”. Estimates as the German Chamber of Commerce (DIHK) quoted for the imported border controls so far cost about ten billion euros annually.
border checks cost time and money
A permanent reintroduction of border controls, however, would be even greater cost and price increases to lead. For longer waiting times at the borders mean higher labor costs for companies. In addition, they need to increase their inventories, as just-in-time deliveries can not be guaranteed. Even that costs money.
The EU Commission recently calculated how high the damage for Austria by the reintroduction of border to Germany. Accordingly incurred € 3.4 billion cost of additional waiting time of one hour for trucks. An economic loss of 2.6 billion euros resulting from longer travel times and congestion for car drivers.
For the EU member states would be a further 1.1 billion euros in costs, due to the introduction of controls. If such border controls in Europe a permanent condition, the welfare loss would be enormous. Even in an optimistic scenario with a moderate increase in prices of imported goods from other European countries by one percent add up, according to the Prognos study the decline in gross domestic product (GDP) within a decade to around 470 billion euros. Germany accounted for which 77 billion euros on France 80.5 billion.
In a pessimistic scenario, the experts predict an increase in import prices by three percent from , Then Europe would threaten a welfare loss of up to 1.4 trillion euros within a decade. Here, the GDP decline in Germany would amount to 235 billion euros, in France it would be around EUR 244 billion.
Seven to eight hours of waiting time at the border
The economic fears in case of permanent border closures unacceptable conditions and enormous tailbacks on motorways, on the burner. Because there two to three times the volume of traffic on the road than before the entry into force of Schengen today, it would quickly lead to extremely long traffic jams.
Also at the German border to Eastern Europe could soon waiting periods of seven to eight hours arise fear politician. “One end of Schengen would be enormously expensive for the German economy. In particular, for the automotive industry, which has many plants in Eastern Europe,” warns CDU politician Michael Fuchs economy. And SPD Vice faction leader Hubertus Heil says: “One end of Schengen would be particularly for euro countries, are stuck in an economic crisis, again a bombshell.”
Currently, annual roll over 18 million trucks from abroad beyond the German borders. Around 1.7 million people in Europe work in a country other than that in which they reside. And in total there are annually 200 million within the EU. Under most economists is recognized that in this travel volume border controls would cause billions costs quickly.
If one end of Schengen jeopardize the Euro?
The costs accurately is impossible. How long waiting times at the borders really at the end would be, nobody knows. Experts therefore also come to completely different results, which could cost one end of Schengen.
A think tank of the French government recently came at the expense of 110 billion euros in a decade. According to calculations by the EU Commission a reintroduction of border controls EUR 180 billion would devour in ten years.
If one end of Schengen, however, jeopardize the economic integration of Europe, the cost could be higher in the medium term, warns the EU. So declared President Jean-Claude Juncker, “without Schengen makes the euro makes no sense”. However, this is controversial. So the euro countries Ireland and Cyprus are already not Schengen members.
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