Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Experts – economy arguing over the future of the Euro – Süddeutsche.de

  • Europe must learn from Greece, and economic rules in common politically, about a euro zone finance ministers – the claim of Finance Minister Schäuble.
  • Four of the economic experts warn against this idea. Only one, Peter Bofinger, believes that monetary union is a political leadership needs.
Cerstin Gammelin , Berlin

As further with Greece and the euro zone? About these questions to argue not only the 19 euro countries, but also the Council of Experts of the Federal Government, the farming practices.

The team of five top economists presented on Tuesday at the telephone presentation of his special report “Consequences of the Greek crisis for a more stable euro area “not only split in the view on the direction of Europe and the economic and monetary union, but also a majority in an outsider position.

Four of the five economic experts warned explicitly” against further , premature integration steps such as setting up a fiscal capacity, a European unemployment or an economic government for the euro area “. The transfer potential cost to the Community without a corresponding sovereignty of Member States lead short or medium term “to increased instability”.

In order for the Advisory Council rejects a majority on what Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and last French President Francois Hollande insist : the further political integration of interested Euro-countries, which opens into an economic government for the euro zone, including euro zone finance ministers, Euro budget and Euro-Parliament. The fifth economy, Peter Bofinger, distanced himself from his colleagues. “The report goes in the wrong direction,” he said. “Without political integration, the euro zone remains unstable structures”

When is a stable Union

In essence arguing the five professors – just like the politicians – a switch position: Should the European Union, the basis of which is the single European market, dominated by purely market-based factors such as competitiveness or fiscal system? Or they should be shaped politically?





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The dissenters Bofinger assumes that the Economic and Monetary Union can act only stable when out politically becomes. It shares so that the majority opinion in Germany. Bofinger argues that the current design of the euro zone can not provide stability in fact, because of the common monetary policy preclude 19 national budgetary policies. That monetary union is nevertheless, the European Central Bank (ECB) was thanks to engaging with unorthodox measures such as buying up programs of government bonds in the market -. And therefore the task done, the politicians are afraid to tackle

Bofinger thinks Who demand that the ECB intervention in the market exit “and not permanently Ausputzerrolle assumes” must also ensure that the policy begin to encourage integration. This meant it would have national competencies are bundled European. There must be a finance minister with penetration rights, a budget and democratic control.

Beyond Bofinger argue that farming practices strictly comply. They encourage you to enter the monetary union a long-term regulatory framework, “which follows the guiding principle of the unity of responsibility and control.” The top economists want to introduce a mechanism for orderly state insolvencies among others. Investors would be in the event of state bankruptcy participate in the losses – and would be forced to estimate the risk of default of government bonds earlier in greater detail. As a last resort States should have to leave the monetary union. Christoph Schmidt, head of economic experts, believes that by the Euro-zone is safe.





Waiting in Athens

38 If you believe the Greek government, the chief negotiator to the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to land this Wednesday in Athens. They should then negotiate a third rescue package for Greece. But no matter how easy it is: The international donors demanding further reforms prior to the payment of new aid loans. Nevertheless, the European Commission showed on Tuesday confident that in the second half of August, an agreement could be. Since the beginning of this week are technical experts of the creditors on the spot, on Tuesday visited the Court in Athens. Alexander Mühlauer

Investors are likely the cause, not the solution of crises

Bofinger emanates from the opposite. A bankruptcy order for States make the community more unstable because investors hardly bonds of those countries bought that are weaker. Marcel Fratzscher, the President of the German Institute for Economic Research, who is not among the five ways described the need for the insolvency procedure for states as “surprising and unrealistic”. The European crisis of recent years have shown, “that investors and financial markets are more likely the cause and not the resolution of financial crises”.

Fratzscher also criticized the requirement for an exit mechanism from the euro as “extremely dangerous and counterproductive “. He would “turn into little more than a system of fixed exchange rates” the euro. The speculative attacks on Italy and Spain in 2012 have shown how costly and damaging it is when financial markets are speculating on a possible exit of individual countries. “



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